Aellic Evidenz
Every number has an origin.
Aellic computes with constants and thresholds — how many nights a baseline needs, when a deviation counts as one, what a single set contributes to muscle growth. 173 of those sites are declared individually: 111 point at a paper, 62 at none. Both are here.
Six areas, 173 declared sites.
Bar length is an area's share of all declared sites. Solid means sourced, hatched means open.
- Recovery 12 sourced · 13 open
- Sleep 12 sourced · 14 open
- Cycle 31 sourced · 16 open
- Training 44 sourced · 10 open
- Nutrition 1 sourced · 1 open
- Behaviour 11 sourced · 8 open
111 sites with a source 62 sites without spine = all 173
See the open sites91
papers on the register
83 carry a DOI or PMID and lead straight to the original paper. 0 are still recorded from author and year alone — which is stated on their entry.
78
wired into the engine
The other 13 sit on the register without a calculation resting on them today. They are listed here all the same.
173
declared sites
Individual constants and thresholds in the code that point at where they came from — 111 at a paper, 62 at nothing.
35
disclosed corrections
Attributions that were wrong. They have not been replaced — they stand, dated, next to what holds instead.
Corrections
35 times the register said something false.
The register is the list this page is built from. Checking its entries turned up misattributions — numbers credited to a paper that does not contain them. They were not quietly swapped out. What was wrong stands, dated, next to what holds.
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corrected 26 July 2026
A Systematic Review of The Effects of Different Resistance Training Volumes on Muscle Hypertrophy
Baz-Valle, Balsalobre-Fernández, Alix-Fages, Santos-Concejero
This work was cited in Aellic for “diminishing returns at very high volume”, and it reached users as the sentence “beyond ~20 sets the additional benefit flattens out”. It shows nothing of the kind. The 20 is a **pre-specified binning boundary**, not a measured inflection point — the review contains no dose-response model, no meta-regression and no breakpoint analysis, so it cannot locate a plateau anywhere. Worse, its only statistically significant volume result runs the opposite way: above 20 weekly sets the triceps grew MORE. The two null findings are absence of evidence from six studies, not evidence of a ceiling. The paper was also cited without ever being entered in this registry, so no guard could see it.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Validation of nocturnal resting heart rate and heart rate variability in consumer wearables
Dial, Hollander, Vatne, Emerson, Edwards, Hagen
Aellic's recovery weighting cited “RHR CCC 0.86–0.98, considerably more robust than any PPG-derived HRV” with no source at all, and the comparison was wrong twice over. First, concordance for HRV in this very study reaches 0.99 (Oura Gen 4) and 0.94 (WHOOP 4.0) — ABOVE every resting-heart-rate value, so the claim is refuted by the same table it was drawn from. Concordance scales with between-subject spread, which is wide for RMSSD and narrow for resting heart rate; comparing the two on that statistic is not meaningful in either direction. The defensible comparison is relative error, and it is now stated that way. Second, no Apple device was tested here, yet the figure was used to justify weighting Apple's resting heart rate.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Poundage Chart, in: Boyd Epley Workout (Lincoln, NE: Body Enterprises, p. 86)
Epley
The entry had no bibliographic record at all and asserted that “every 1RM formula becomes unreliable beyond roughly 10 repetitions” without a source. The claim holds for LINEAR estimators such as this one — reynolds2006 states it outright — but not for every formula: non-linear equations are validated to about 15 repetitions. Provenance and the supporting source are now on record.
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corrected 26 July 2026
The training—injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder?
Gabbett
Two things were attributed to this paper that are not its own. (1) The 28-day chronic window: Gabbett defines chronic load as “the rolling average of the most recent 3–6 weeks of training”, not a fixed four weeks — the 28-day figure and the corridor figure it is drawn in come from blanch2016 , which this paper credits in the caption. (2) The two- to fourfold injury risk above 1.5 does appear here, but as a report of someone else's data; the primary source is hulin2014 in cricket fast bowlers. Both are now filed separately and carry Aellic's window constants.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Effects of resistance training performed to repetition failure or non-failure on muscular strength and hypertrophy: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Grgic, Schoenfeld, Orazem, Sabol
The clause “and produces disproportionate autonomic fatigue” was not in this paper. Its only outcomes are 1RM and muscle size — the words autonomic, heart rate variability and parasympathetic do not appear in it, and its conclusion says the reverse of a fatigue warning: training to failure “does not seem to have detrimental effects on these adaptations, either”. The trained-subgroup result above was also missing, which made the blanket “failure is NOT required” read stronger than the source allows.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Muscle Failure Promotes Greater Muscle Hypertrophy in Low-Load but Not in High-Load Resistance Training
Lasevicius, Schoenfeld, Silva-Batista, Barros, Aihara, Brendon, Longo, Tricoli, Peres, Teixeira
The added parenthesis “(≥80 % 1RM)” overstated the design: only two loads were tested, 30 % and 80 %. The paper establishes no threshold — where between the two the effect flips is not something it can say. Aellic's 70 % boundary needs a separate justification and has one; it is not this work.
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corrected 26 July 2026
The Effects of Concurrent Aerobic and Strength Training on Muscle Fiber Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Lundberg, Feuerbacher, Sünkeler, Schumann
The findings of this entry and of schumann2022 were the wrong way round. What stood here — no whole-muscle deficit, only explosive strength affected — is the result of schumann2022 ; this paper measures fibre size only and explicitly narrowed its protocol to that outcome. The whole-muscle sentence appears in its background, as a reference to the earlier work. The added condition “and only at high volumes” was in neither paper: the moderator that mattered in schumann2022 was same-session execution, not volume.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Nocturnal finger skin temperature in menstrual cycle tracking: ambulatory pilot study using a wearable Oura ring
Maijala, Kinnunen, Koskela, Jämsä, Kangas
The registry attributed a flat “0.30–0.50 °C” to this paper; the 0.50 comes from zhu2021 and the 0.33 from shilaih2018 . These are three data sets, not one range from one source.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Influence of Resistance Training Proximity-to-Failure on Skeletal Muscle Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review with Meta-analysis
Refalo, Helms, Trexler, Hamilton, Fyfe
This entry previously read “hypertrophy drops off markedly once sets end more than 4–5 repetitions short of failure (ES 0.19), which justifies the upper limit of 4 RIR”. Neither half holds. The paper contains no repetitions-in-reserve analysis whatsoever — its proximity gradient runs entirely on velocity loss — and the ES 0.19 it does report is the overall set-failure versus non-failure comparison, which the authors themselves call trivial and of uncertain validity. It also states outright that current set-termination methods “pose a challenge for deriving practical recommendations”. Aellic's 4-RIR ceiling is therefore a design decision, not a finding of this work.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Dose-response relationship between weekly resistance training volume and increases in muscle mass: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Schoenfeld, Ogborn, Krieger
Two claims previously hung on this paper that it does not carry. (1) “Hard sets”: the paper has no effort or RIR criterion at all — its inclusion threshold is a load of at least 65 % 1RM. Whether a set was taken close to failure is not part of the dose. (2) “No paper uses tonnage as the dose”: the opposite is stated in its own introduction, which defines volume as “sets × reps × load”. That sentence was a generalisation about the literature, not a result of this work, and it is not citable here.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Longer Interset Rest Periods Enhance Muscle Strength and Hypertrophy in Resistance-Trained Men
Schoenfeld, Pope, Benik, Hester, Sellers, Nooner, Schnaiter, Bond-Williams, Carter, Ross, Just, Henselmans, Krieger
“For hypertrophy as well as for strength” reproduced the authors' own conclusion but hid that hypertrophy reached significance at one measurement site out of two. Stated plainly now.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Compatibility of Concurrent Aerobic and Strength Training for Skeletal Muscle Size and Function: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Schumann, Feuerbacher, Sünkeler, Freitag, Rønnestad, Doma, Lundberg
Two errors. (1) The findings of this entry and of lundberg2022 were swapped — the whole-muscle result recorded there belongs here. (2) “Running interferes more strongly than cycling” is not merely misplaced but contradicted by this paper, which found no moderating effect of aerobic type (cycling versus running) at all; that difference comes from lundberg2022 , and only for type I fibres. The old framing “confirms Lundberg 2022” had the chronology backwards as well: this is the earlier work (epub November 2021), lundberg2022 the successor (epub April 2022) — and the successor does not fully confirm it.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Modern fertility awareness methods: wrist wearables capture the changes in temperature associated with the menstrual cycle
Shilaih, Goodale, Falco, Kübler, De Clerck, Leeners
This paper was cited at four places in the cycle engine but was missing from the registry entirely — it is NOT identical with shilaih2017 (different year, different journal, different signal: temperature instead of pulse).
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corrected 26 July 2026
Age-predicted maximal heart rate revisited
Tanaka, Monahan, Seals
The scatter was recorded as “SEE ~10 bpm”. The paper reports it as a standard deviation of individual values around the regression line, not a standard error of estimate — the magnitude is right, the statistic was not. Not to be confused with the 11.4 and 12.4 bpm SEE values that later validation studies report for this formula; those belong to other work.
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corrected 26 July 2026
Normative data for the squat, bench press and deadlift exercises in powerlifting: Data from 809,986 competition entries
van den Hoek, Beaumont, van den Hoek, Owen, Garrett, Buhmann, Latella
The three number pairs were written as “2.83/2.75, 1.95/2.00, 3.25/3.25” without saying what the slash separated. It separates this paper's value from Aellic's anchor, both male — but it reads just as easily as male/female, and on that reading every second number is wrong. The pairs are spelled out now, the age band the percentile refers to is named, and the female anchors are declared for what they are: unbacked by this source.
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corrected 25 July 2026
The AASM Manual for the Scoring of Sleep and Associated Events: Rules, Terminology and Technical Specifications, Version 3
American Academy of Sleep Medicine
The registry attributed the values “N3 15–20 %, REM 20–25 %” to the AASM. The AASM does not publish these figures; they come from the textbook chapter by Carskadon & Dement in Kryger/Roth/Dement, which gives N3 13–23 % for young adults. For normative bands, ohayon2004 is the source that holds.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Current evidence shows no influence of women's menstrual cycle phase on acute strength performance or adaptations to resistance exercise training
Colenso-Semple, D'Souza, Elliott-Sale, Phillips
The registry quoted “highly premature” — the word “highly” does not appear in the original.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Sleep regularity and mortality: a prospective analysis in the UK Biobank
Cribb, Sha, Yiallourou, Grima, Cavuoto, Baril, Pase
Until then this entry read “independently confirms Windred 2024” — which is not true. Both papers analyse UK Biobank actigraphy and the cohorts overlap. It is a replication within the same data source using different exclusion criteria and a different analysis (splines instead of quintiles), not an independent confirmation.
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corrected 25 July 2026
ACE-Sponsored Research: What Is the Best Back Exercise?
Edelburg, Porcari, Camic, Kovacs, Foster — American Council on Exercise
What was measured was the MIDDLE and LOWER trapezius, never the upper — and the study does not say that rowing barely loads the latissimus; it assigns the best exercise per muscle. Commissioned research without journal publication, and graded accordingly.
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corrected 25 July 2026
A new approach to monitoring exercise training
Foster, Florhaug, Franklin, Gottschall, Hrovatin, Parker, Doleshal, Dodge
The correlation of r = 0.75–0.90 previously recorded here does NOT appear in the paper — it reports no correlation coefficients at all. And the comparator is Edwards' summated heart rate zone method, not Banister's TRIMP on heart rate reserve.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Maximal and ventilatory threshold responses to treadmill and water immersion running
Frangolias, Rhodes
The comparison is made at maximal exertion and at the threshold, NOT at equal oxygen uptake — the VO₂ values differ as well. And the authors attribute the difference to muscle recruitment, water viscosity and the absence of weight bearing, not to hydrostatic pressure plus the diving reflex; that explanation was Aellic's own addition.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Real-world effects of alcohol on heart rate, sleep, and physical activity by age and sex
Grosicki, Robinson, Joyner, Carter, von Hippel, Presby, Fielding, Bigalke, Kim, Chapman, Holmes
Filed as “PLOS 2024” until then — the paper was published on 2026-03-09 in PLOS Digital Health.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio: Conceptual Issues and Fundamental Pitfalls
Impellizzeri, Tenan, Kempton, Novak, Coutts
The entry bundled “Impellizzeri et al.; Griffin et al.” until then. Griffin et al. 2020 (Sports Medicine 50(3):561–580) is NOT a criticism but explicitly endorses the ACWR as “a valuable tool for monitoring training load” — so that paper stood as evidence for the opposite of its own claim and has been removed. The addition “arbitrary thresholds” is not literally supported by the abstract.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Effects of different intensities of resistance training with equated volume load on muscle strength and hypertrophy
Lasevicius, Ugrinowitsch, Schoenfeld, Roschel, Tavares, De Souza, Laurentino, Tricoli
The registry named a 30 % boundary — the paper tests 20/40/60/80 % and therefore places the break somewhere between 20 and 40 %, not at 30 %.
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corrected 25 July 2026
An electromyographic and kinetic comparison of conventional and Romanian deadlifts
Lee, Schultz, Timgren, Staelgraeve, Miller, Liu
Against the conventional deadlift the difference at the biceps femoris was NOT significant — the claim is “loads the hamstrings”, not “more than the conventional deadlift”.
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corrected 25 July 2026
A Validation of Six Wearable Devices for Estimating Sleep, Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability in Healthy Adults
Miller, Sargent, Roach
The registry filed this paper under “chinoy2022” — Chinoy is not an author at all. The upper bound of κ 0.65 noted earlier was also wrong; it comes from robbins2024 . And “sensitivity ≥95 %” holds for only two of the six devices.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Sleep and Respiration in 100 Healthy Caucasian Sleepers — A Polysomnographic Study According to American Academy of Sleep Medicine Standards
Mitterling, Högl, Schönwald, Hackner, Gabelia, Biermayr, Frauscher
The registry carried the claim “normal sleep onset latency is under 30 minutes” under the id “mitterling” with DOI 10.5664/jcsm.7036 — that DOI belongs to Hertenstein 2018 (prefix 10.5664 instead of 10.5665). The 30-minute limit appears in NEITHER paper; it is a clinical rule of thumb.
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corrected 25 July 2026
The Resistance Training Dose Response: Meta-Regressions Exploring the Effects of Weekly Volume and Frequency on Muscle Hypertrophy and Strength Gains
Pelland, Remmert, Robinson, Hinson, Zourdos
The addition “10+ sets per muscle per week is the accepted guideline” does NOT appear in the paper. Its Table 3 names 4 weekly sets as the minimum effective dose and 5–10 as the range of highest efficiency — so the efficient corridor sits rather BELOW 10. Previously filed as “pelland2024”: that is the year of the SportRxiv preprint (doi 10.51224/SRXIV.460); the peer-reviewed version appeared in 2026.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Acute Effect of Alcohol Intake on Cardiovascular Autonomic Regulation During the First Hours of Sleep in a Large Real-World Sample of Finnish Employees: Observational Study
Pietilä, Helander, Korhonen, Myllymäki, Kujala, Lindholm
Filed as an industry white paper until then — it is in fact a peer-reviewed observational study with a DOI, and has been re-graded accordingly.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Training adaptation and heart rate variability in elite endurance athletes: opening the door to effective monitoring
Plews, Laursen, Stanley, Kilding, Buchheit
Until then the registry recorded this entry as “Frontiers in Physiology 6:343” with the year 2015. That citation belongs to Schmitt/Regnard/Millet 2015, a different paper by different authors.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Accuracy of Three Commercial Wearable Devices for Sleep Tracking in Healthy Adults
Robbins, Weaver, Sullivan, Quan, Gilmore, Shaw, Benz, Qadri, Barger, Czeisler, Duffy
The author line read “Chinoy, Robbins et al.”; Evan Chinoy is not involved in this paper.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Effects of Resistance Training Frequency on Measures of Muscle Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Schoenfeld, Ogborn, Krieger
The registry rendered this paper with the OPPOSITE claim until then — here the frequency advantage survives volume equating. The claim that nothing remains once weekly volume is equated comes from the successor paper schoenfeld2019_freq ; that is also where Aellic's justification for not scoring frequency separately lives.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Update of the Nutri-Score algorithm (main report 2022, foods) and Update of the Nutri-Score algorithm for beverages (second report V2-2023, beverages)
Scientific Committee of the Nutri-Score — published by Santé publique France
The NOVA-4 penalty does NOT belong to this source: a full-text search of both official reports finds neither “NOVA” nor “ultra-processed” even once. Nutri-Score has no penalty for degree of processing — that is Aellic's own addition and must not be attributed to this source.
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corrected 25 July 2026
An Overview of Heart Rate Variability Metrics and Norms
Shaffer & Ginsberg
The registry attributed an RMSSD age table with “a 1–2 ms decline per year from age 30” to this paper. Neither appears in it — Table 7 names Umetani 1998 as the source without reprinting the values. See umetani1998 ; there the decline is not linear in any case.
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corrected 25 July 2026
Assessing the Accuracy of Popular Commercial Technologies That Measure Resting Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability
Stone, Ulman, Tran, Thompson, Halter, Ramadan, Stephenson, Finomore, Galster, Rezai, Hagen
The figure previously recorded here — “PPG underestimates RMSSD by 6–11 %” — was a misreading. The 6.84–9.43 % are MAPE, that is, unsigned error magnitudes of individual devices, not a class property of PPG. Two of the three PPG paths OVERestimated RMSSD; the strongest underestimation came from an ECG chest strap. On top of that, n = 5 only — too thin for a hard rule.
The register
All 91 papers, by area.
A paper that informs two areas appears in both — it carries its own sites in each. Every entry leads to a page of its own, with the full reference and a link to the original work.
Recovery
9 papers
2010
Systematic review
A quantitative systematic review of normal values for short-term heart rate variability in healthy adults
Nunan, Sandercock, Brodie · Pacing and Clinical Electrophysiology 33(11):1407–1417
44 studies with 21,438 participants: RMSSD ≈ 42 ± 15 ms, SDNN ≈ 50 ± 16 ms over 5 minutes. RMSSD and SDNN are different metrics on different scales. Important for how this is read: the ± is the spread BETWEEN studies, not the distribution within a population — sound as a normative reference, not as an individual assessment.
2 sites · HRV baselines and deviations
2013
Review
The LF/HF ratio does not accurately measure cardiac sympatho-vagal balance
Billman · Frontiers in Physiology 4:26
“Parasympathetic nerve activation contributes to at least 50 % of the LF variability while sympathetic activity, at best, only contributes 25 % to this variability.” That makes the LF/HF ratio unusable as a sympathovagal index — which is why Aellic deliberately does not use it.
1 site · HRV baselines and deviations
2021
Randomised trial
The effect of acute sleep deprivation on skeletal muscle protein synthesis and the hormonal environment
Lamon, Morabito, Arentson-Lantz, Knowles, Vincent, Condo, Alexander, Garnham, Paddon-Jones, Aisbett · Physiological Reports 9(1):e14660
One night of total sleep deprivation (N = 13, randomised crossover): muscle protein synthesis −18 %, cortisol +21 %, testosterone −24 %. Acute anabolic resistance — the basis for how heavily sleep weighs in the recovery score.
1 site · Recovery score weighting and age references
2025
Observational study
Validation of nocturnal resting heart rate and heart rate variability in consumer wearables
Dial, Hollander, Vatne, Emerson, Edwards, Hagen · Physiological Reports 13(16):e70527
13 healthy adults, 536 nights against an ECG reference. Resting heart rate reached Lin's concordance correlation of 0.86 (Polar Grit X Pro, which the authors themselves grade “poor”) to 0.98 (Oura Gen 4), with mean absolute percentage errors of 1.67–3.00 %. The corresponding HRV errors were three to five times larger on the same nights and devices (MAPE 5.96–16.32 %). That error ratio — not the concordance coefficient — is what supports treating nocturnal resting heart rate as the steadier of the two signals.
1 site · Recovery score weighting and age references corrected 26 July 2026
2013
Observational study
Training adaptation and heart rate variability in elite endurance athletes: opening the door to effective monitoring
Plews, Laursen, Stanley, Kilding, Buchheit · Sports Medicine 43(9):773–781
ln(RMSSD) is the most practical measure for day-to-day monitoring; the log transform normalises the right-skewed RMSSD distribution, and the paper establishes that averaging is required at all, rather than reading single measurements. NOT supported are the specific window lengths (14 nights minimum, 7 days acute, 30 days chronic) — those are design decisions.
3 sites · HRV baselines and deviations corrected 25 July 2026
1998
Observational study
Twenty-four hour time domain heart rate variability and heart rate: relations to age and gender over nine decades
Umetani, Singer, McCraty, Atkinson · Journal of the American College of Cardiology 31(3):593–601
24-hour norms for 260 healthy people (112 m / 148 f) aged 10 to 99, by decade. The actual primary source for the age dependence of HRV, which Aellic previously misattributed to Shaffer & Ginsberg. The decline is NOT linear: RMSSD falls to 47 % of its starting value by the sixth decade (pNN50 to 24 %) “and then stabilized”. A constant rate of “ms per year of life” cannot be derived from it.
1 site · HRV baselines and deviations
2015
Guideline
National Sleep Foundation's sleep time duration recommendations: methodology and results summary
Hirshkowitz, Whiton, Albert, Alessi, Bruni, DonCarlos, Hazen, Herman, Katz, Kheirandish-Gozal, Neubauer, O'Donnell, Ohayon, Peever, Rawding, Sachdeva, Setters, Vitiello, Ware, Adams Hillard — National Sleep Foundation · Sleep Health 1(1):40–43
Age-dependent sleep duration recommendations from an expert panel: 7–9 h for young adults and adults, 7–8 h from age 65. A population default, sound as a cold start, not as an individual target. Full report: Sleep Health 1(4):233–243, doi 10.1016/j.sleh.2015.10.004.
1 site · Recovery score weighting and age references
2013
Guideline
Prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the overtraining syndrome: joint consensus statement of the European College of Sport Science and the American College of Sports Medicine
Meeusen, Duclos, Foster, Fry, Gleeson, Nieman, Raglin, Rietjens, Steinacker, Urhausen — ECSS/ACSM Consensus Statement · Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 45(1):186–205
There is no reliable single biomarker for overtraining: “none of them meet all the criteria to make their use generally accepted”. A multi-signal approach beats any individual marker — hence the corroboration through resting heart rate and respiratory rate. The statement names NO threshold values, however; the specific limits (+5 bpm, +1.5 brpm) are Aellic's own. Second publication: European Journal of Sport Science 13(1):1–24, doi 10.1080/17461391.2012.730061 — different pagination, do not mix the two.
1 site · HRV baselines and deviations
1996
Guideline
Heart rate variability: Standards of measurement, physiological interpretation, and clinical use
Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and NASPE · Circulation 93(5):1043–1065
The reference definition of the time- and frequency-domain HRV measures. Basis for the separate RMSSD and SDNN tables. Deliberately recorded WITHOUT a PMID: the frequently co-cited PMID 8737210 belongs to the second publication in the European Heart Journal 17(3):354–381 (doi 10.1093/oxfordjournals.eurheartj.a014868), not to this Circulation version — the combination would be wrong in itself.
1 site · HRV baselines and deviations
Sleep
9 papers
2004
Meta-analysis
Meta-analysis of quantitative sleep parameters from childhood to old age in healthy individuals: developing normative sleep values across the human lifespan
Ohayon, Carskadon, Guilleminault, Vitiello · Sleep 27(7):1255–1273
Meta-analysis across 65 studies / 3,577 people aged 5 to 102. WASO is the largest age effect in sleep architecture — rising by roughly 10 min per decade of life between 30 and 60, largely stable thereafter. The peer-reviewed basis for normative bands of sleep architecture; the N3 and REM bands used in Aellic have not yet been reconciled line by line against this paper's tables.
2 sites · Sleep stages and bedtime
1982
Review
A two process model of sleep regulation
Borbély · Human Neurobiology 1(3):195–204
The two-process model: sleep propensity is the interaction of homeostatic sleep pressure (Process S, rising exponentially during wake and falling exponentially during sleep) and a circadian rhythm (Process C). Its consequence for any sleep-debt feature: Process S SATURATES — sleep debt is not a bank account, it neither accumulates linearly forever nor is it repaid 1:1. The model supports only the qualitative shape (bounded, recency-weighted); every concrete window, decay or cap constant is construction, not literature.
2 sites · Sleep stages and bedtime
2021
Randomised trial
The effect of acute sleep deprivation on skeletal muscle protein synthesis and the hormonal environment
Lamon, Morabito, Arentson-Lantz, Knowles, Vincent, Condo, Alexander, Garnham, Paddon-Jones, Aisbett · Physiological Reports 9(1):e14660
One night of total sleep deprivation (N = 13, randomised crossover): muscle protein synthesis −18 %, cortisol +21 %, testosterone −24 %. Acute anabolic resistance — the basis for how heavily sleep weighs in the recovery score.
1 site · Sleep stages and bedtime
2024
Observational study
Accuracy of Three Commercial Wearable Devices for Sleep Tracking in Healthy Adults
Robbins, Weaver, Sullivan, Quan, Gilmore, Shaw, Benz, Qadri, Barger, Czeisler, Duffy · Sensors 24(20):6532
n = 35 against laboratory polysomnography: Oura performs best among the consumer devices (κ 0.65 on the four-stage classification, ahead of Apple Watch 0.60 and Fitbit Sense 0.55) — but remains far from polysomnography.
1 site · Sleep stages and bedtime corrected 25 July 2026
2024
Observational study
Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration: A prospective cohort study
Windred, Burns, Lane, Saxena, Rutter, Cain, Phillips · Sleep 47(1):zsad253
UK Biobank (n = 60,977, 1,859 deaths): sleep regularity is a STRONGER predictor of mortality than sleep duration — 20–48 % lower all-cause mortality in the upper four SRI quintiles compared with the lowest.
1 site · Sleep stages and bedtime
2023
Observational study
Sleep regularity and mortality: a prospective analysis in the UK Biobank
Cribb, Sha, Yiallourou, Grima, Cavuoto, Baril, Pase · eLife 12:RP88359
n = 88,975: hazard ratio 1.53 (95 % CI 1.41–1.66) at the 5th SRI percentile.
1 site · Sleep regularity corrected 25 July 2026
2022
Observational study
A Validation of Six Wearable Devices for Estimating Sleep, Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability in Healthy Adults
Miller, Sargent, Roach · Sensors 22(16):6317
n = 53 across 6 devices against polysomnography: agreement on multi-class sleep stage only 50–65 %, κ 0.20–0.52 (Apple 0.20 up to Somfit 0.52). Sleep sensitivity 90–98 %. This is why the stage distribution now weighs only 0.10 in Aellic instead of 0.25.
1 site · Sleep stages and bedtime corrected 25 July 2026
2017
Observational study
Irregular sleep/wake patterns are associated with poorer academic performance and delayed circadian and sleep/wake timing
Phillips, Clerx, O'Brien, Sano, Barger, Picard, Lockley, Klerman, Czeisler · Scientific Reports 7(1):3216
Definition of the Sleep Regularity Index: SRI = 100 × (2 × P(same state at t and t+24 h) − 1), on a scale of −100 to 100. The paper does not ask for “at least 7 days” but for whole MULTIPLES of 7 days — a weekly grid, so that the distribution of weekdays cannot skew the result.
2 sites · Sleep regularity, Sleep stages and bedtime
2006
Observational study
Social jetlag: misalignment of biological and social time
Wittmann, Dinich, Merrow, Roenneberg · Chronobiology International 23(1-2):497–509
Definition of social jetlag: SJL = |MSF − MSW|, the difference in mid-sleep between free days and work days (n = 501, Munich ChronoType Questionnaire). Limit of our verification: the full text is paywalled; the formula itself was confirmed only through the citing literature, not read in the original.
1 site · Sleep regularity
Cycle
20 papers
2026
Meta-analysis
The diagnostic accuracy of wearable digital technology in detecting fertility window and menstrual cycles: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis
Shi et al. · npj Digital Medicine 9(1):139
Network meta-analysis of wearable-based ovulation detection: exact-day accuracy pooled across devices is 0.56, and only ~68 % land within ±1 day. This is the justification for Aellic ALWAYS shipping the estimated ovulation with a confidence band and never presenting it as “measured”.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2020
Meta-analysis
The Effects of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Exercise Performance in Eumenorrheic Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
McNulty, Elliott-Sale, Dolan, Swinton, Ansdell, Goodall, Thomas, Hicks · Sports Medicine 50(10):1813–1827
78 studies, n = 1,193: ES −0.04, CrI [−0.11, 0.08], GRADE low. There is NO appreciable luteal performance decrement. The popular advice to “take it easier in the luteal phase” inverts a finding that is trivial to begin with — which is why Aellic builds no cycle-phase-driven training recommendation.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2019
Meta-analysis
A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Within-Person Changes in Cardiac Vagal Activity across the Menstrual Cycle: Implications for Female Health and Future Studies
Schmalenberger, Eisenlohr-Moul, Würth, Schneider, Thayer, Ditzen, Jarczok · Journal of Clinical Medicine 8(11):1946
37 studies: meta-analytic d = −0.39, 95 % CI [−0.67, −0.11]; the primary literature is “not only inconsistent but contradictory”, two studies found the opposite direction, and only 42 % verified the phase hormonally. Too weak for a fixed constant — hence no cold-start offset for HRV.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2023
Systematic review
Current evidence shows no influence of women's menstrual cycle phase on acute strength performance or adaptations to resistance exercise training
Colenso-Semple, D'Souza, Elliott-Sale, Phillips · Frontiers in Sports and Active Living 5:1054542
Umbrella review of meta-analyses and systematic reviews on cycle-phase-driven training: “it is premature to conclude that short-term fluctuations in reproductive hormones appreciably influence acute exercise performance or longer-term strength or hypertrophic adaptations”.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines corrected 25 July 2026
2026
Observational study
The menstrual cycle through the lens of a wearable device: insights into physiology, sleep, and cycle variability
Gonzalez, O'Day, Johnson, Kim, Jasinski, Holmes, Delp, Hicks (Stanford × WHOOP) · npj Digital Medicine (online 2026-05-25; volume and article number not yet assigned)
42,759 cycles from 2,596 women across 1.2 million days: the amplitude of the cyclical swing scales with cycle length; measured across respiratory rate, resting heart rate, HRV, temperature and SpO₂. Preprint of the same work: bioRxiv, doi 10.1101/2025.09.11.675620 — the peer-reviewed version is deliberately the one cited here.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2025
Observational study
Oura Ring as a Tool for Ovulation Detection: Validation Analysis
Thigpen, Patel, Zhang, Fitzgerald, Kim, Symul, Wang · Journal of Medical Internet Research 27:e60667
Validation of ovulation detection through a temperature wearable; confirms the order of magnitude of MAE 1.2–1.3 days from wang2025 in a second data set and on a second device.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2025
Observational study
Performance of algorithms using wrist temperature for retrospective ovulation day estimate and next menses start day prediction: a prospective cohort study
Wang, Park, Zhang, Jukic, Baird, Coull, Hauser, Mahalingaiah, Zhang · Human Reproduction 40(3):469–478
Retrospective ovulation estimation from wrist temperature: MAE 1.2–1.3 days, 89 % of estimates within ±2 days (PAE2). Carries three constants of the temperature-based ovulation estimate: the signal threshold of +0.2 °C, the confidence band of ±2 days, and the honesty rule that a non-detection is not a finding — only ~80.8 % of cycles reach the threshold at all, and ~19 % produce no usable signal whatsoever. A non-detection therefore explicitly does NOT mean “anovulatory”.
3 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2024
Observational study
A Novel method for quantifying fluctuations in wearable derived daily cardiovascular parameters across the menstrual cycle
Jasinski, Rowan, Presby, Stevens, Chapman, Hanes, Capodilupo · npj Digital Medicine 7(1):373
n = 11,590: only 80.6 % of women show the expected RMSSD amplitude across the cycle. A fixed offset would impose a pattern on one woman in five that she does not have — THE load-bearing argument for a per-person learned offset instead of a constant from the literature. It also supplies the shape that the two-strata model deliberately simplifies: resting heart rate has its minimum on cycle day 5 and its maximum only on day 26, so it rises during the fertile window already, rather than jumping after ovulation.
4 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2023
Observational study
Nocturnal Heart Rate Variability in Women Discordant for Hormonal Contraceptive Use
Ahokas, Hanstock, Löfberg, Nyman, Wenning, Kyröläinen, Laaksonen, Ihalainen · Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 55(7):1342–1349
Users of combined oral contraceptives are NOT signal-free: nocturnal HRV follows a real rhythm driven by the pill pack (higher during the pill-free interval). Aellic's strata sit at estimated ovulation, not at the pack boundary — so part of this is captured, but not all of it. A genuine pill-pack mode would be a development stage of its own; until then the position is: partially correct, never wrong, and documented.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2021
Observational study
The Accuracy of Wrist Skin Temperature in Detecting Ovulation Compared to Basal Body Temperature: Prospective Comparative Diagnostic Accuracy Study
Zhu, Rothenbühler, Hamvas, Hofmann, Leeners, Kyburz, Yang · Journal of Medical Internet Research 23(6):e20710
Wrist skin temperature against oral basal temperature for ovulation detection; supplies the upper end of the luteal temperature rise (up to +0.50 °C) and confirms that skin carries the larger amplitude. Aellic deliberately does NOT take this value but the lower edge from maijala2019 — too large an offset would mask genuine strain.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2020
Observational study
Menstrual Cycle Changes in Vagally-Mediated Heart Rate Variability are Associated with Progesterone: Evidence from Two Within-Person Studies
Schmalenberger, Eisenlohr-Moul, Surez Vasquez, Momm, Girdler, Kiesner, Ditzen, Jarczok · Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(3):617
Progesterone, not estradiol, predicts the lower luteal HRV. That makes it an endocrine signal, not exhaustion — penalising it as a recovery deficit was a category error, and that is the justification for the entire seasonal adjustment.
2 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2019
Observational study
Real-world menstrual cycle characteristics of more than 600,000 menstrual cycles
Bull, Rowland, Berglund Scherwitzl, Scherwitzl, Danielsson, Harper · npj Digital Medicine 2:83
612,613 cycles with ovulation confirmed by basal temperature and LH: cycle length 29.3 ± 5.2 d, follicular phase 16.9 ± 5.3 d, luteal phase 12.4 ± 2.4 d. Variance ratio follicular:luteal ≈ 4.9:1 — all of the spread sits BEFORE ovulation. This is why ovulation is estimated backwards from the next expected period: going backwards inherits the luteal SD of 2.4 instead of the follicular one of 5.3. It also carries `DEFAULT_CYCLE_LENGTH = 29` (only 13 % of all cycles really run 28 days; the mean is 29.3).
4 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2019
Observational study
Wearable Sensors Reveal Menses-Driven Changes in Physiology and Enable Prediction of the Fertile Window: Observational Study
Goodale, Shilaih, Falco, Dammeier, Hamvas, Leeners · Journal of Medical Internet Research 21(4):e13404
708 cycles: resting heart rate +3.96 bpm from the follicular to the late luteal phase. The luteal RESPIRATORY RATE swing, by contrast, is only +0.2 to +0.6 br/min and therefore BELOW the night-to-night precision of commercial sensors (~1.0 br/min) — which is why there is deliberately no cold-start offset for `respiratory_rate`, only the learned one.
2 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2019
Observational study
Nocturnal finger skin temperature in menstrual cycle tracking: ambulatory pilot study using a wearable Oura ring
Maijala, Kinnunen, Koskela, Jämsä, Kangas · BMC Women's Health 19(1):150
Nocturnal FINGER skin temperature across the cycle, measured with an Oura ring: luteal rise +0.30 ± 0.12 °C. That is the lower edge of the range Aellic uses and therefore the cold-start value for `body_temp`. Important for how this is read: skin, not core — distal skin temperature has the LARGER amplitude compared with an oral basal temperature (~0.20–0.23 °C), and skin is exactly what a wearable measures.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines corrected 26 July 2026
2019
Observational study
Assessment of menstrual health status and evolution through mobile apps for fertility awareness
Symul, Wac, Hillard, Salathé · npj Digital Medicine 2:64
2.7 million cycles: only ~24 % of ovulations fall on cycle day 14–15, and 90 % are spread across days 10–24. Anyone who simply assumes “day 14” is wrong in a good three cases out of four.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2018
Observational study
Modern fertility awareness methods: wrist wearables capture the changes in temperature associated with the menstrual cycle
Shilaih, Goodale, Falco, Kübler, De Clerck, Leeners · Bioscience Reports 38(6):BSR20171279
Wrist skin temperature: luteal rise +0.33 °C; a sustained 3-day shift occurs in 82 % of cycles, and 86 % of shifts begin on the day of ovulation or later. Carries three constants of the ovulation estimate at once: the 3-day rule (`TEMP_SHIFT_SUSTAIN_DAYS`), the choice of the day BEFORE the shift begins as ovulation, and the stratum boundary `> ovu_day`.
2 sites · Phases and cycle-aware baselines corrected 26 July 2026
2017
Observational study
Pulse Rate Measurement During Sleep Using Wearable Sensors, and its Correlation with the Menstrual Cycle Phases, A Prospective Observational Study
Shilaih, Clerck, Falco, Kübler, Leeners · Scientific Reports 7(1):1294
274 cycles: pulse rate during sleep rises mid-luteally by +3.8 bpm compared with menstruation. One of three independent data sets behind the range of +2 to +4 bpm (the others: goodale2019 +3.96, jasinski2024 ~3.5 peak-to-trough). Aellic sets the cold start to +2.0 — the lower edge.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2006
Observational study
Phasic menstrual cycle effects on the control of breathing in healthy women
Slatkovska, Jensen, Davies, Wolfe · Respiratory Physiology & Neurobiology 154(3):379–388
Progesterone acts as a respiratory drive; minute ventilation rises luteally by about 1 L/min. The effect is real — but it runs almost entirely through TIDAL VOLUME, not through rate. Which is why, despite demonstrable physiology, all that remains in respiratory rate is a swing below device precision (see goodale2019), and why there is no cold-start constant for it. Listed in PubMed without a DOI.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
2001
Observational study
Sleep and 24 hour body temperatures: a comparison in young men, naturally cycling women and women taking hormonal contraceptives
Baker, Waner, Vieira, Taylor, Driver, Mitchell · The Journal of Physiology 530(Pt 3):565–574
Comparison of 24-hour body temperature between men, naturally cycling women and women using hormonal contraceptives. Establishes the honest limit of the cycle engine: on combined pills the temperature stays chronically raised and flat — it does not even fall back during the pill-free interval. The learned temperature offset therefore correctly tends towards zero there. Listed in PubMed without a DOI. The addition “n = 8, rectal” found in the code prose has not been verified against the full text.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
1984
Observational study
Normal variation in the length of the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle: identification of the short luteal phase
Lenton, Landgren, Sexton · British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 91(7):685–689
Luteal length 14.13 ± 1.41 d — measured from the LH PEAK. Aellic has no LH test and must therefore use bull2019 (12.4 d from estimated ovulation); mixing the two anchors would shift every phase boundary by ~2 days. This anchor trap is exactly why `LUTEAL_LENGTH_DAYS = 12` rather than the reflexive 14. No DOI: published in 1984, before this journal assigned them.
1 site · Phases and cycle-aware baselines
Training
33 papers
2026
Meta-analysis
The Resistance Training Dose Response: Meta-Regressions Exploring the Effects of Weekly Volume and Frequency on Muscle Hypertrophy and Strength Gains
Pelland, Remmert, Robinson, Hinson, Zourdos · Sports Medicine 56(2):481–505
Meta-regression: “a 0.24 % increase in hypertrophy (95 % CrI: 0.15, 0.33) per additional set at the average ‘fractional’ weekly volume of 12.25 sets”.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 25 July 2026
2023
Meta-analysis
Influence of Resistance Training Proximity-to-Failure on Skeletal Muscle Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review with Meta-analysis
Refalo, Helms, Trexler, Hamilton, Fyfe · Sports Medicine 53(3):649–665
15 studies. Training to set failure held a “trivial advantage” over non-failure for hypertrophy (ES 0.19; 95 % CI 0.00–0.37; p = 0.045), and none at all for momentary muscular failure specifically (ES 0.12; p = 0.343). Proximity was graded by velocity-loss thresholds, where high (>25 %) versus moderate (20–25 %) also came out level (ES 0.08; p = 0.529). Supports the direction — closer to failure is not worse — and nothing more precise than that.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2022
Meta-analysis
Effects of resistance training performed to repetition failure or non-failure on muscular strength and hypertrophy: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Grgic, Schoenfeld, Orazem, Sabol · Journal of Sport and Health Science 11(2):202–211
15 studies in young adults. No significant difference between failure and non-failure training, for strength (ES −0.09; 95 % CI −0.22 to 0.05) or for hypertrophy (ES 0.22; 95 % CI −0.11 to 0.55). One subgroup runs the other way and matters for Aellic's audience: among already resistance-trained participants, training to failure WAS significantly better for hypertrophy (ES 0.15; 95 % CI 0.03–0.26).
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2022
Meta-analysis
The Effects of Concurrent Aerobic and Strength Training on Muscle Fiber Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Lundberg, Feuerbacher, Sünkeler, Schumann · Sports Medicine 52(10):2391–2403
The fibre-level follow-up to schumann2022, and the one place where a small interference effect does show up: 15 studies, SMD −0.23 for overall muscle fibre hypertrophy (95 % CI −0.46 to −0.00; p = 0.050), −0.34 for type I (p = 0.078) and −0.13 for type II (p = 0.315). This is also the source for the running-versus-cycling difference: type I fibres were negatively affected when the aerobic work was running (SMD −0.81; 95 % CI −1.26 to −0.36) but not cycling. The authors call the contrast with whole-muscle findings “intriguing” rather than resolved.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2022
Meta-analysis
Compatibility of Concurrent Aerobic and Strength Training for Skeletal Muscle Size and Function: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Schumann, Feuerbacher, Sünkeler, Freitag, Rønnestad, Doma, Lundberg · Sports Medicine 52(3):601–612
43 studies, 1,090 participants — the whole-muscle picture, and the reason Aellic does not warn about interference. Hypertrophy SMD −0.01 (p = 0.919) and maximal strength −0.06 (p = 0.446) are untouched; only explosive strength is attenuated (−0.28; p = 0.007), and more so when both sessions fall in the same session than when they are separated by at least three hours (p = 0.043). Type of aerobic training, training frequency, training status and age were all non-significant moderators.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2019
Meta-analysis
How many times per week should a muscle be trained to maximize muscle hypertrophy? A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies examining the effects of resistance training frequency
Schoenfeld, Grgic, Krieger · Journal of Sports Sciences 37(11):1286–1295
With weekly volume equated, training frequency has no meaningful influence on hypertrophy. THIS is the source for Aellic's decision not to score frequency separately — not the 2016 predecessor, which was wrongly cited for it until 2026-07-25.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle
2017
Meta-analysis
Dose-response relationship between weekly resistance training volume and increases in muscle mass: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Schoenfeld, Ogborn, Krieger · Journal of Sports Sciences 35(11):1073–1082
34 treatment groups from 15 studies: “Each additional set was associated with an increase in effect size (ES) of 0.023 corresponding to an increase in the percentage gain by 0.37%” (p = 0.002). The dose is coded as total sets per muscle group per week.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2001
Meta-analysis
Age-predicted maximal heart rate revisited
Tanaka, Monahan, Seals · Journal of the American College of Cardiology 37(1):153–156
HRmax = 208 − 0.7 × age. Meta-analysis across 351 studies / 492 groups / 18,712 people (r = −0.90), cross-validated in a laboratory cohort of 514 healthy people whose own regression, 209 − 0.7 × age, the authors call “virtually identical”. Individual values scatter about ±10 bpm around the line, so the formula sets a population expectation and not a personal ceiling. The widespread 220 − age formula has no comparable derivation.
2 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR corrected 26 July 2026
2022
Systematic review
A Systematic Review of The Effects of Different Resistance Training Volumes on Muscle Hypertrophy
Baz-Valle, Balsalobre-Fernández, Alix-Fages, Santos-Concejero · Journal of Human Kinetics 81:199–210
Six studies in trained men aged 18–35, binned a priori into “low” (<12 weekly sets), “moderate” (12–20) and “high” (>20). Moderate and high volumes did not differ for the quadriceps (p = 0.19) or the biceps brachii (p = 0.59); for the triceps brachii the HIGHER volume was significantly better (p = 0.01). The authors' recommendation is “a range of 12–20 weekly sets per muscle group may be an optimum standard recommendation”, offered as pragmatic advice for that population.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2020
Systematic review
Electromyographic activity in deadlift exercise and its variants. A systematic review
Martín-Fuentes, Oliva-Lozano, Muyor · PLoS ONE 15(2):e0229507
EMG in the deadlift: erector spinae and quadriceps show higher activation than gluteus maximus and biceps femoris. Confirms the mapping to the erector spinae. For the Romanian variant the relationship reverses.
1 site · Which muscles an exercise loads
2020
Review
Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio: Conceptual Issues and Fundamental Pitfalls
Impellizzeri, Tenan, Kempton, Novak, Coutts · International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance 15(6):907–913
Severe methodological criticism of the ACWR: “there are known issues with the use of ratio data”, it is “an inaccurate metric (failing to normalize the numerator by the denominator even when uncoupled)”, “not consistently and unidirectionally related to injury risk”, and “there is no evidence supporting the use of ACWR in training-load-management systems”. This is why Aellic reports the ACWR only with the label “heuristic”.
2 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR corrected 25 July 2026
2018
Review
Interpreting Signal Amplitudes in Surface Electromyography Studies in Sport and Rehabilitation Sciences
Vigotsky, Halperin, Lehman, Trajano, Vieira · Frontiers in Physiology 8:985
Acute EMG amplitude is NOT a validated predictor of hypertrophy; conclusions about long-term adaptation are “frequently unsubstantiated and unwarranted”. The muscle mapping may therefore only say which muscles a movement loads — not which one grows most. Note: year 2018 with volume 8 and a 2017 DOI stem is how this was actually published (eCollection 2017), not a typo.
2 sites · Muscle growth — sets per muscle, Which muscles an exercise loads
2016
Review
Has the athlete trained enough to return to play safely? The acute:chronic workload ratio permits clinicians to quantify a player's risk of subsequent injury
Blanch, Gabbett · British Journal of Sports Medicine 50(8):471–475
The actual origin of the four-week chronic window Aellic computes against: injury likelihood is modelled against “acute load spikes above what they have been doing on average over the past 4 weeks (chronic load)”, with a polynomial fit of R² = 0.53 across three sports. Also the source of the sweet-spot figure that gabbett2016 reproduces.
3 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR
2016
Review
The training—injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder?
Gabbett · British Journal of Sports Medicine 50(5):273–280
Source of the corridor Aellic ships, twice stated verbatim: “acute:chronic workload ratios within the range of 0.8–1.3 could be considered the training ‘sweet spot’, while acute:chronic workload ratios ≥1.5 represent the ‘danger zone’”. Acute load is one week of training, “a logical and convenient unit”.
3 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR corrected 26 July 2026
2002
Review
Muscle strength testing: use of normalisation for body size
Jaric · Sports Medicine 32(10):615–631
Strength scales with body mass^(2/3) under geometric similarity. Linear division systematically penalises heavier athletes. Important limitation: the exponent 0.67 applies to muscle STRENGTH (dynamometer); for torque (isokinetic) the paper explicitly recommends b = 1, so linear division is the correct choice there. Scaling a torque-derived measure by ^(2/3) would be a misapplication of this source.
1 site · Strength standards and ranks
1991
Review
Modeling elite athletic performance
Banister · Book chapter in: MacDougall, Wenger, Green (eds.), Physiological Testing of the High-Performance Athlete, 2nd edition, Human Kinetics, pp. 403–424
TRIMP weights intensity exponentially (lactate-weighted) and computes on heart rate reserve — not in linear steps on raw %HRmax. A book chapter, hence no DOI. Two caveats: the chapter's content is confirmed only through the citing literature, not read in the original; and the frequently cited book title “Physiological Testing of Elite Athletes” belongs to the first edition of 1982 — the source here is the second edition of 1991.
2 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR
2022
Randomised trial
Muscle Failure Promotes Greater Muscle Hypertrophy in Low-Load but Not in High-Load Resistance Training
Lasevicius, Schoenfeld, Silva-Batista, Barros, Aihara, Brendon, Longo, Tricoli, Peres, Teixeira · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 36(2):346–351
25 untrained men, 8 weeks, unilateral leg extension, volume equated. At 30 % 1RM failure IS required (quadriceps CSA +7.8 % to failure versus +2.8 % not to failure); at 80 % it is not (+8.1 % versus +7.7 %). Strength followed load rather than failure (~33 % at 80 % 1RM versus ~17 % at 30 %).
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 26 July 2026
2018
Randomised trial
Effects of different intensities of resistance training with equated volume load on muscle strength and hypertrophy
Lasevicius, Ugrinowitsch, Schoenfeld, Roschel, Tavares, De Souza, Laurentino, Tricoli · European Journal of Sport Science 18(6):772–780
With volume load equated, 40, 60 and 80 % 1RM were equivalent, “however, 20 % 1RM was suboptimal” (vastus lateralis cross-sectional area +8.9 % at 20 % versus ~20 % for all the others).
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle corrected 25 July 2026
2016
Randomised trial
Neither load nor systemic hormones determine resistance training-mediated hypertrophy or strength gains in resistance-trained young men
Morton, Oikawa, Wavell, Mazara, McGlory, Quadrilatero, Baechler, Baker, Phillips · Journal of Applied Physiology 121(1):129–138
Confirms Mitchell 2012 in already-trained men over 12 weeks (~30–50 % versus ~75–90 % 1RM, all sets to failure): load is secondary for hypertrophy, proximity to failure is what counts.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle
2012
Randomised trial
Resistance exercise load does not determine training-mediated hypertrophic gains in young men
Mitchell, Churchward-Venne, West, Burd, Breen, Baker, Phillips · Journal of Applied Physiology 113(1):71–77
Hypertrophy is comparable across 30–80 % 1RM provided the work is taken close to muscular failure (muscle volume by MRI +6.8 % at 30 %, +7.2 % at 80 %, p = 0.18). Only the two end points were tested, no intermediate loads.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle
2024
Observational study
Normative data for the squat, bench press and deadlift exercises in powerlifting: Data from 809,986 competition entries
van den Hoek, Beaumont, van den Hoek, Owen, Garrett, Buhmann, Latella · Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport 27(10):734–742
809,986 drug-tested raw competition entries (571,650 male, 238,336 female). For male lifters aged 18–35 the 90th percentile lands almost exactly on Aellic's elite anchor: squat 2.83 versus our 2.75, bench press 1.95 versus 2.00, deadlift 3.25 versus 3.25 (all as 1RM ÷ body mass). Peer-reviewed backing for three of the twelve lifts, on the male side. The female elite anchors rest on strengthlevel alone; this paper's female 90th percentiles are lower (squat 2.26, bench press 1.35, deadlift 2.66) and were never used to set them.
1 site · Strength standards and ranks corrected 26 July 2026
2022
Observational study
Front vs Back and Barbell vs Machine Overhead Press: An Electromyographic Analysis and Implications For Resistance Training
Coratella, Tornatore, Longo, Esposito, Cè · Frontiers in Physiology 13:825880
Overhead pressing involves the upper trapezius across all four variants tested (its task: stabilising scapular elevation) — which justifies adding `traps` to the vertical push family. Limitation: the paper publishes effect sizes only, no absolute %MVIC values; HOW strongly the upper trapezius contributes cannot be quantified from it.
1 site · Which muscles an exercise loads
2018
Observational study
An electromyographic and kinetic comparison of conventional and Romanian deadlifts
Lee, Schultz, Timgren, Staelgraeve, Miller, Liu · Journal of Exercise Science & Fitness 16(3):87–93
EMG in the Romanian deadlift: biceps femoris is the most active of the muscles measured (56.66 % peak versus gluteus maximus 46.88 % and rectus femoris 25.26 %). Confirms the hamstring mapping.
1 site · Which muscles an exercise loads corrected 25 July 2026
2015
Observational study
A Comparison of Gluteus Maximus, Biceps Femoris, and Vastus Lateralis Electromyographic Activity in the Back Squat and Barbell Hip Thrust Exercises
Contreras, Vigotsky, Schoenfeld, Beardsley, Cronin · Journal of Applied Biomechanics 31(6):452–458
EMG of the hip thrust versus the squat: upper gluteus maximus 69.5 % versus 29.4 %, lower 86.8 % versus 45.4 %. Confirms the gluteus mapping.
1 site · Which muscles an exercise loads
2014
Observational study
The relationship between the number of repetitions performed at given intensities is different in endurance and strength trained athletes
Richens, Cleather · Biology of Sport 31(2):157–161
Why a repetition-based estimate degrades at higher rep counts for reasons no formula can fix: at 70 % 1RM endurance runners managed 39.9 ± 17.6 repetitions against weightlifters' 17.9 ± 2.8, and at 80 % 19.8 ± 6.4 against 11.8 ± 2.7 (both p < 0.05); at 90 % the difference vanished. Above roughly 10 repetitions the estimate depends more on training history than on which equation is used. Small sample — 8 athletes per group.
1 site · Workout logging — 1RM estimation
2006
Observational study
Prediction of one repetition maximum strength from multiple repetition maximum testing and anthropometry
Reynolds, Gordon, Robergs · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 20(3):584–592
70 subjects aged 18–69, bench press and leg press at 1, 5, 10 and 20RM. The load-repetition relationship is curvilinear, not linear (bench press linear Sy.x = 2.6 kg versus non-linear 0.2 kg; leg press 11.0 versus 2.6 kg), and accuracy falls as the repetition count rises (R² for 5/10/20RM: bench 0.993/0.976/0.955, leg press 0.974/0.933/0.915). Concludes verbatim: “no more than 10 repetitions should be used in linear equations to estimate 1RM”. This is the source of Aellic's 10-repetition cap.
1 site · Workout logging — 1RM estimation
2001
Observational study
A new approach to monitoring exercise training
Foster, Florhaug, Franklin, Gottschall, Hrovatin, Parker, Doleshal, Dodge · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 15(1):109–115
sRPE = RPE (0–10) × duration in minutes, deliberately collected only 30 minutes after the session, “so that particularly difficult or particularly easy segments toward the end of the exercise bout would not dominate the subject's rating”. Works entirely without a heart rate signal and also yields monotony and strain (Table 5).
3 sites · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR corrected 25 July 2026
1995
Observational study
Maximal and ventilatory threshold responses to treadmill and water immersion running
Frangolias, Rhodes · Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 27(7):1007–1013
In water the heart rate runs lower than on land: 190 versus 175 bpm maximal (15 bpm) and 165 versus 152 bpm at the ventilatory threshold (13 bpm). Without an offset, every HR zone systematically overestimates intensity in water.
1 site · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR corrected 25 July 2026
1957
Observational study
The effects of training on heart rate; a longitudinal study
Karvonen, Kentala, Mustala · Annales Medicinae Experimentalis et Biologiae Fenniae 35(3):307–315
The paper from which the heart rate reserve method emerged: personalise zones through the reserve, that is, take resting heart rate into account rather than maximum heart rate alone. Assessment: the closed formula THR = HRrest + f × (HRmax − HRrest) is a later textbook formalisation, not a formula this small longitudinal study puts forward itself. PubMed carries no abstract; the content is evidenced only through secondary literature.
1 site · Training load — zones, TRIMP, ACWR
2018
Manufacturer data
ACE-Sponsored Research: What Is the Best Back Exercise?
Edelburg, Porcari, Camic, Kovacs, Foster — American Council on Exercise
EMG comparison of eight back exercises in 19 trained participants: rowing movements activate the middle trapezius most strongly, pull-up and chin-up the latissimus.
1 site · Which muscles an exercise loads corrected 25 July 2026
—
Manufacturer data
Exercise Directory (muscle involvement classification)
ExRx.net
Target / synergist / stabiliser framework, translated into primary and secondary. Convention, not measurement — the mapping was cross-checked against EMG for each movement pattern.
1 site · Muscle growth — sets per muscle
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Manufacturer data
Strength Standards
strengthlevel.com
Percentile bands from roughly 195 million reported lifts (beginner 5th to elite 95th percentile). Crowd-sourced self-report with an upward bias — for 9 of the 12 lifts it is the only source, and it is labelled as exactly that. For the male squat, bench press and deadlift anchors vandenhoek2024 provides peer-reviewed agreement; the female anchors rest on this source alone.
1 site · Strength standards and ranks
1985
Convention
Poundage Chart, in: Boyd Epley Workout (Lincoln, NE: Body Enterprises, p. 86)
Epley
1RM estimate w × (1 + reps/30). Grey literature, and worth stating plainly: the source is a self-published training chart, not a study — the formula is an algebraic reconstruction of that table, with no sample and no derivation data behind it. Richens & Cleather 2014 describe it in their own comparison table as “a poundage chart, not based on scientific research”. Aellic uses it because it is the established convention and performs acceptably in validation work, not because it is well founded. The cap at 10 repetitions is carried by reynolds2006.
2 sites · Strength standards and ranks, Workout logging — 1RM estimation corrected 26 July 2026
Behaviour
7 papers
1995
Review
Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing
Benjamini, Hochberg · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 57(1):289–300
Control of the false discovery rate across a family of tests. Necessary because the insight engine computes ~10 habits × ~12 metrics ≈ 120 tests — of which roughly 6 would break the p < 0.05 threshold by chance alone and be shown to the user as advice. A note on grading: `strength = review` is a makeshift here — this is an original methodological work with proof and simulation, for which the registry's vocabulary holds no value of its own. No PMID; the paper predates PubMed coverage of this journal.
1 site · Statistical safeguards
2014
Randomised trial
Alcohol Ingestion Impairs Maximal Post-Exercise Rates of Myofibrillar Protein Synthesis following a Single Bout of Concurrent Training
Parr, Camera, Areta, Burke, Phillips, Hawley, Coffey · PLoS ONE 9(2):e88384
Muscle protein synthesis −24 % (alcohol with protein) and −37 % (alcohol with carbohydrate) — but at 1.5 g/kg, which the authors themselves put at 12 ± 2 standard drinks. Outside anything that gets logged in practice, so no penalty is applied.
1 site · Alcohol and caffeine
2013
Randomised trial
Caffeine Effects on Sleep Taken 0, 3, or 6 Hours before Going to Bed
Drake, Roehrs, Shambroom, Roth · Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine 9(11):1195–1200
400 mg of caffeine six hours before bedtime costs more than an hour of sleep: “Even at 6 hours, caffeine reduced sleep by more than 1 hour” (n = 12, double-blind, placebo-controlled). Carries the mechanism — but not the dose, since a marker knows only a time of day.
2 sites · Alcohol and caffeine
2012
Randomised trial
The influence of a CYP1A2 polymorphism on the ergogenic effects of caffeine
Womack, Saunders, Bechtel, Bolton, Martin, Luden, Dunham, Hancock · Journal of the International Society of Sports Nutrition 9(1):7
CYP1A2 genotype determines the strength of the caffeine response (n = 35 trained cyclists, 6 mg/kg, 40 km time trial). Aellic will never have this genotype; the learned effect captures the phenotype implicitly. Note: an erratum appeared in 2015 (J Int Soc Sports Nutr 12:24, doi 10.1186/s12970-015-0079-6) — two participants had been assigned to the wrong genotype group. The core claim holds, the percentages shift slightly; anyone citing them must use the corrected ones.
1 site · Alcohol and caffeine
2026
Observational study
Real-world effects of alcohol on heart rate, sleep, and physical activity by age and sex
Grosicki, Robinson, Joyner, Carter, von Hippel, Presby, Fielding, Bigalke, Kim, Chapman, Holmes · PLOS Digital Health 5(3):e0001284
5,109,185 person-days from 20,968 participants: women are affected more strongly (resting heart rate +2.8 bpm versus +2.4 bpm in men) — but the paper publishes NO multiplier, only absolute sex-separated differences. Hence no sex multiplier in Aellic; the per-person learned effect absorbs it in any case.
1 site · Alcohol and caffeine corrected 25 July 2026
2018
Observational study
Acute Effect of Alcohol Intake on Cardiovascular Autonomic Regulation During the First Hours of Sleep in a Large Real-World Sample of Finnish Employees: Observational Study
Pietilä, Helander, Korhonen, Myllymäki, Kujala, Lindholm · JMIR Mental Health 5(1):e23
Dose-resolved resting heart rate response to alcohol: “HR was increased by 1.4 bpm with low, 4.0 bpm with moderate, and 8.7 bpm with high alcohol intake” (bands: ≤0.25 / >0.25–0.75 / >0.75 g/kg pure alcohol), n = 4,098 across 111,025 measurement days. Preferred over WHOOP's linear extrapolation because it is dose-resolved rather than projected. Firstbeat is the data provider and the employer of three co-authors; the company's own pages do not carry these bpm values at all.
3 sites · Alcohol and caffeine corrected 25 July 2026
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Manufacturer data
Effects of Alcohol on Sleep, HRV, and Recovery
WHOOP
Publishes only “1 drink → −7 ms HRV” together with a persistence of 74 / 29 / 19 % over three days. The HRV figure is NOT used as a cold start in Aellic — extrapolating it to 5 drinks would be invented linearity.
2 sites · Alcohol and caffeine
Not yet wired in
13 papers
Checked and on the register, but nothing computes with them today — mostly because the feature they belong to has not been built yet. They are listed so the number above does not look larger than it carries.
2023
Guideline
The AASM Manual for the Scoring of Sleep and Associated Events: Rules, Terminology and Technical Specifications, Version 3
American Academy of Sleep Medicine
The binding scoring standard for sleep stages. It prescribes that the share of each stage in total sleep time be REPORTED — but it names no normal ranges for those shares.
corrected 25 July 2026
2024
Randomised trial
Gaining more from doing less? The effects of a one-week deload period during supervised resistance training on muscular adaptations
Coleman, Burke, Augustin, Piñero, Maldonado, Fisher, Israetel, Androulakis Korakakis, Swinton, Oberlin, Schoenfeld · PeerJ 12:e16777
DOES NOT SUPPORT THE RECOMMENDATION ATTRIBUTED TO IT — and contradicts it. It is not a review but a randomised trial, and its result reads: a deload week in the middle of a 9-week programme “appears to negatively influence measures of lower body muscle strength but has no effect on lower body hypertrophy, power or local muscular endurance”. A recommendation of “every 3–6 weeks” appears nowhere in it. Until 2026-07-25 this source stood in Aellic for the opposite of what it shows; the observed intervals are now carried by rogerson2024.
2011
Observational study
Modeling the association between HR variability and illness in elite swimmers
Hellard, Guimaraes, Avalos, Houel, Hausswirth, Toussaint · Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 43(6):1063–1070
DOES NOT SUPPORT THE RULE ATTRIBUTED TO IT. The paper measures SD1, SD2, HF and LF — RMSSD does not appear at all — samples weekly over two years in n = 18, and finds the OPPOSITE direction: a RISE in the parasympathetic indices (HF, SD1) measured supine one week earlier went together with a HIGHER risk of illness. A threshold of “≥20 % drop over 3–5 days” appears nowhere in it; a 3–5 day window is not even part of the study design. Until 2026-07-25 this source carried Aellic's deviation rule — that rule is a practitioner heuristic without a clean primary source and now stands as an openly unsourced design decision.
2018
Observational study
Reference Data for Polysomnography-Measured and Subjective Sleep in Healthy Adults
Hertenstein, Gabryelska, Spiegelhalder, Nissen, Johann, Umarova, Riemann, Baglioni, Feige · Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine 14(4):523–532
Reference data for healthy sleepers — and an explicit objection to hard cut-offs: “values often classified as pathological by clinicians, such as a SOL longer than 30 minutes and a SE below 80 %, are well within the bounds of the healthy sample”. Until 2026-07-25 this paper sat under the id “mitterling” by mistake, because its DOI had been entered there.
2014
Observational study
Spikes in acute workload are associated with increased injury risk in elite cricket fast bowlers
Hulin, Gabbett, Blanch, Chapman, Bailey, Orchard · British Journal of Sports Medicine 48(8):708–712
The primary data behind the “two- to fourfold risk” that gabbett2016 quotes. A negative training-stress balance raised injury risk in the following week (RR 2.2 for internal, 2.1 for external workload), and a balance above 200 % raised it to RR 4.5 (internal) and 3.3 (external) versus a balance of 50–99 %. One sport, one role — elite cricket fast bowlers — which is the ceiling on how far it generalises to Aellic's users.
2010
Observational study
How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world
Lally, van Jaarsveld, Potts, Wardle · European Journal of Social Psychology 40(6):998–1009
“The median time to reach 95 % of asymptote was 66 days, with a range from 18 to 254 days.” A habit takes a median of 66 days to become automatic, with considerable spread — not 21 days. To be cited before any statement of the kind “you have built a habit”. The curve was fitted for 39 of 96 participants.
2015
Observational study
Sleep and Respiration in 100 Healthy Caucasian Sleepers — A Polysomnographic Study According to American Academy of Sleep Medicine Standards
Mitterling, Högl, Schönwald, Hackner, Gabelia, Biermayr, Frauscher · Sleep 38(6):867–875
Polysomnography in 100 healthy adults to AASM standard; reports sleep onset latency as age percentile curves and finds no age effect.
corrected 25 July 2026
2012
Observational study
Social jetlag and obesity
Roenneberg, Allebrandt, Merrow, Vetter · Current Biology 22(10):939–943
Social jetlag is associated with a higher BMI — and independently of sleep duration.
2024
Observational study
Deloading Practices in Strength and Physique Sports: A Cross-sectional Survey
Rogerson, Nolan, Androulakis Korakakis, Immonen, Wolf, Bell · Sports Medicine — Open 10(1):26
A survey of practice as it is actually lived: deloads are “integrated into the training programme every 5.6 ± 2.3 weeks”, triggered predominantly when performance stagnates or when soreness and joint complaints increase. Describes what trainees DO — it makes no claim about efficacy.
2016
Meta-analysis
Effects of Resistance Training Frequency on Measures of Muscle Hypertrophy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Schoenfeld, Ogborn, Krieger · Sports Medicine 46(11):1689–1697
“When comparing studies that investigated training muscle groups between 1 to 3 days per week on a volume-equated basis, the current body of evidence indicates that frequencies of training twice a week promote superior hypertrophic outcomes to once a week” (ES 0.49 versus 0.30).
corrected 25 July 2026
2016
Randomised trial
Longer Interset Rest Periods Enhance Muscle Strength and Hypertrophy in Resistance-Trained Men
Schoenfeld, Pope, Benik, Hester, Sellers, Nooner, Schnaiter, Bond-Williams, Carter, Ross, Just, Henselmans, Krieger · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 30(7):1805–1812
21 trained men, 8 weeks, 3 full-body sessions per week at 3 × 8–12 RM. Three minutes of rest beat one for strength (1RM squat and bench press both significantly higher) and for hypertrophy — with the caveat that the size advantage was site-dependent: significant in the anterior thigh, only a trend at the triceps brachii (p = 0.06). Overturned the old dogma of “short rests for hypertrophy”.
corrected 26 July 2026
2017
Review
An Overview of Heart Rate Variability Metrics and Norms
Shaffer & Ginsberg · Frontiers in Public Health 5:258
The most-cited practitioner reference for HRV metrics and norms; its Table 6 carries the short-term norms from Nunan 2010. Usable only as a cold-start fallback — the spread among healthy adults is too wide to decide anything about an individual.
corrected 25 July 2026
2021
Observational study
Assessing the Accuracy of Popular Commercial Technologies That Measure Resting Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability
Stone, Ulman, Tran, Thompson, Halter, Ramadan, Stephenson, Finomore, Galster, Rezai, Hagen · Frontiers in Sports and Active Living 3:585870
Consumer devices deviate from a multi-channel ECG reference to differing degrees; an absolute RMSSD comparison across device boundaries is therefore invalid.
corrected 25 July 2026
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